Generated 2026-06-17 23:30 IST · 45-day rolling window · 6 forecast sources benchmarked against DES network
Bias, MAE, RMSE, Pearson r against DES observed Tmax. Categorical scores (POD, FAR, CSI) for the IMD HW threshold (40 °C) and severe-HW threshold (42 °C). Green = strong, yellow = acceptable, red = needs attention.
| Source | Bias°C | MAE | RMSE | r | POD₄₀ | FAR₄₀ | CSI₄₀ | POD₄₂ | CSI₄₂ | n |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| IMD GFS GRIB | +1.92 | 4.14 | 5.65 | 0.222 | 0.781 | 0.394 | 0.518 | 0.71 | 0.373 | 14725 |
| IMD GFS | +0.38 | 2.89 | 4.12 | 0.385 | 0.624 | 0.295 | 0.495 | 0.541 | 0.386 | 6445 |
| IMD MME | -0.19 | 2.81 | 4.04 | 0.379 | 0.593 | 0.312 | 0.468 | 0.482 | 0.359 | 13110 |
| ECMWF IFS | -3.41 | 4.34 | 5.35 | 0.351 | 0.274 | 0.206 | 0.255 | 0.149 | 0.141 | 16350 |
| GFS NCEP | -0.27 | 3.11 | 4.49 | 0.364 | 0.625 | 0.297 | 0.494 | 0.537 | 0.377 | 16350 |
| ICON DWD | -1.86 | 3.25 | 4.36 | 0.365 | 0.375 | 0.242 | 0.335 | 0.3 | 0.26 | 11524 |
| Source | D+0 | D+1 | D+2 | D+3 | D+4 | D+5 | D+6 | D+7 | D+8 | D+9 | D+10 | D+11 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| imd_gfs_grib | 5.93 | 5.32 | 5.59 | 5.68 | 5.73 | 5.66 | 5.53 | 5.44 | 5.25 | 5.17 | 6.02 | 6.64 |
| imd_gfs | — | 3.83 | 3.99 | 4.12 | 4.3 | 4.36 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| imd_mme | — | 3.86 | 3.78 | 3.76 | 3.75 | 3.79 | 4.04 | 4.19 | 4.35 | 4.37 | 4.55 | — |
| ecmwf_ifs | 5.22 | 5.11 | 5.15 | 5.35 | 5.38 | 5.19 | 5.33 | 5.45 | 5.56 | 5.7 | — | — |
| gfs_ncep | 4.05 | 4.2 | 4.16 | 4.2 | 4.28 | 4.44 | 4.41 | 4.74 | 4.91 | 5.35 | — | — |
| icon_dwd | 4.5 | 4.71 | 4.44 | 4.26 | 4.24 | 4.19 | 4.16 | — | — | — | — | — |
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